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C001 — CI Adoption Rate: 40% Figure Is Outdated — Likely correct historically (55-80%), very likely outdated (80-95%)

Contents

Summary

Claim: Only approximately 40% of open source projects use continuous integration at all.

Bottom Line: The 40% CI adoption figure is likely correct as a historical data point from the seminal 2016 Hilton et al. study, but is very likely outdated as a description of current adoption. GitHub Actions alone matched the entire 40% rate by January 2022. The figure is also sensitive to population definition — active projects show much higher CI adoption than the full repository population including abandoned and hobby projects. The researcher should not present 40% as a current figure.

Results

Artifact Description
Input Original text, clarification, scope, vocabulary
Assessment Evidence synthesis, probability assessment, gaps
Self-Audit Process audit across 4 ROBIS domains
Reading List Prioritized source list

Hypotheses

ID Label Status
H1
H2
H3
H4

Searches

ID Target Returned Selected
S01 H1 ? ?
S02 H2 ? ?
S03 H3 ? ?
S04 H1 ? ?
S05 H4 ? ?

Sources

ID Title Reliability Relevance
SRC001 https://mir.cs.illinois.edu/marinov/publications/HiltonETAL1 High High
SRC002 https://decan.lexpage.net/files/SANER-2022a.pdf High High
SRC003 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S01641 High High
SRC004 https://blog.jetbrains.com/teamcity/2026/03/best-ci-tools/ Medium Medium
SRC005 https://www.chainguard.dev/unchained/wolfis-upstream-securit Medium High
SRC006 https://www.scworld.com/news/open-source-vulnerabilities-per Medium High
SRC007 https://www.sonatype.com/state-of-the-software-supply-chain/ Medium High
SRC008 https://arxiv.org/html/2409.07669v2 High High
SRC009 https://www.pixee.ai/blog/sast-false-positives-reduction Medium High
SRC010 https://embeddedbits.org/how-is-the-linux-kernel-tested-embe Medium High
SRC011 https://www.kernel.org/doc/html/v6.5/dev-tools/testing-overv High High
SRC012 https://arxiv.org/html/2605.07900v1 High High
SRC013 https://www.nist.gov/news-events/news/2026/04/nist-updates-n High High
SRC014 https://www.moderne.ai/blog/security-dependency-updates-unma Medium High
SRC015 https://contribute.cncf.io/resources/services/hosted-tools/ High Medium
SRC016 https://www.linuxfoundation.org/research/maintainer-perspect High High

Evidence Snapshot

Dimension Rating
Evidence quality Robust
Source agreement High

Revisit Triggers

  • [study] A new large-scale empirical study (>50K repos) measures overall CI adoption across all CI tools combined, providing a post-2023 baseline figure.
  • [data_update] GitHub publishes official aggregate statistics on GitHub Actions adoption as a percentage of active repositories.
  • [study] Hilton et al. or similar research group publishes a follow-up study replicating the 2016 methodology on current repositories.
  • [time] More than 12 months elapse from the date of this research (May 2026), as CI adoption rates are changing rapidly.

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