C001 — H2:

Contents

• Supporting Evidence Would Show
• Eliminating Evidence Would Show

Statement: The 40% figure significantly understates current CI adoption because it predates the rapid uptake of GitHub Actions (launched 2019, dominant by 2021-2022), and current adoption rates are substantially higher (>55%).

Supporting Evidence Would Show

• Time-series data showing rapid growth of GitHub Actions adoption from 2020 onward.
• Recent (2023-2025) studies measuring CI adoption rates well above 40%.
• Evidence that GitHub Actions lowered the barrier to CI adoption significantly, pulling in projects that previously did not use CI.

Eliminating Evidence Would Show

• Recent studies (2023+) confirming CI adoption remains near 40% even accounting for GitHub Actions.
• Evidence that GitHub Actions primarily replaced existing CI tools (Travis CI, CircleCI) rather than adding net new CI users.
• Data showing the long tail of inactive/hobby/abandoned repositories still dominates and keeps overall rates low.

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