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C002 — OpenSSF Scorecard Average for Critical Projects — The claim is roughly even chance to likely correct in its specific form (40-55%), but directionally correct with higher confidence (75-85%). The 5.4 figure comes from Chainguard's Wolfi analysis, not OpenSSF's 1 million critical projects.

Contents

Summary

Claim: The average OpenSSF Scorecard score across the top one million critical open source projects is 5.4 out of 10.

Bottom Line: The 5.4 average Scorecard score is confirmed from Chainguard's analysis of 1,500 Wolfi upstream repos, not from OpenSSF's full 1 million critical projects. The 1 million project scanning program exists and publishes results to BigQuery. The 0-10 scoring methodology works as described. The specific 5.4 figure for the full population is unverified, though Chainguard notes that scores in the 4-6 range are 'typical' for open source projects. The popularity-score correlation suggests the critical projects set (selected for importance/popularity) might score higher than 5.4.

Results

Artifact Description
Input Original text, clarification, scope, vocabulary
Assessment Evidence synthesis, probability assessment, gaps
Self-Audit Process audit across 4 ROBIS domains
Reading List Prioritized source list

Hypotheses

ID Label Status
H1
H2
H3

Searches

ID Target Returned Selected
S01 H1 0 0
S02 H2 0 0
S03 H2 0 0
S04 H3 0 0

Sources

ID Title Reliability Relevance
SRC001 https://arxiv.org/html/2602.14572v3 High High
SRC002 https://www.chainguard.dev/unchained/wolfis-upstream-securit Medium High
SRC003 https://github.com/ossf/scorecard High High
SRC004 https://www.blackduck.com/blog/open-source-trends-ossra-repo Medium High
SRC005 https://www.scworld.com/news/open-source-vulnerabilities-per Medium High
SRC006 https://www.sonatype.com/state-of-the-software-supply-chain/ Medium High
SRC007 https://www.sonatype.com/state-of-the-software-supply-chain/ Medium High
SRC008 https://www.moderne.ai/blog/security-dependency-updates-unma Medium High
SRC009 https://konvu.com/compare/semgrep-vs-codeql Medium High
SRC010 https://arxiv.org/html/2605.07900v1 High High
SRC011 https://arxiv.org/html/2409.07669v2 High High
SRC012 https://openssf.org/blog/2024/01/31/maintainer-motivations-c High High
SRC013 https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10664-023-10369-w High Medium

Evidence Snapshot

Dimension Rating
Evidence quality Medium
Source agreement Medium

Revisit Triggers

  • [organization] OpenSSF publishes aggregate Scorecard statistics (mean, median, distribution) for the 1 million critical projects
  • [study] A researcher queries the BigQuery public dataset to compute the actual mean Scorecard score
  • [policy] The Scorecard methodology changes significantly (new checks, different weighting)
  • [data_update] Chainguard updates their Wolfi upstream analysis with a new average score

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