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C003 — OSSRA Vulnerability Figures: Accurate but Contextual — Almost certainly accurate as quotation (95-99%), contextual factors very likely influential (80-95%)

Contents

Summary

Claim: 87% of audited codebases contain at least one known open source vulnerability, with an average of 581 vulnerabilities per codebase representing a 107% year-over-year increase.

Bottom Line: The claim is almost certainly accurate as a direct quotation from the OSSRA 2026 report. However, the 107% increase is very likely influenced by measurement factors — codebase size grew 74% in files and 30% in components, the CVE database grew 263% over 5 years, and the Linux kernel CNA addition contributed 5,000+ new CVEs during the audit period. The OSSRA sample (947 codebases from M&A due diligence) is not representative of all codebases. Critical/high-severity vulnerability prevalence actually decreased slightly despite the total count increase. The researcher should present these as OSSRA audit findings with full contextual caveats, not as representative of all software.

Results

Artifact Description
Input Original text, clarification, scope, vocabulary
Assessment Evidence synthesis, probability assessment, gaps
Self-Audit Process audit across 4 ROBIS domains
Reading List Prioritized source list

Hypotheses

ID Label Status
H1
H2
H3
H4

Searches

ID Target Returned Selected
S01 H1 ? ?
S02 H2 ? ?
S03 H3 ? ?
S04 H4 ? ?
S05 H2 ? ?

Sources

ID Title Reliability Relevance
SRC001 https://mir.cs.illinois.edu/marinov/publications/HiltonETAL1 High High
SRC002 https://decan.lexpage.net/files/SANER-2022a.pdf High High
SRC003 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S01641 High High
SRC004 https://blog.jetbrains.com/teamcity/2026/03/best-ci-tools/ Medium Medium
SRC005 https://www.chainguard.dev/unchained/wolfis-upstream-securit Medium High
SRC006 https://www.scworld.com/news/open-source-vulnerabilities-per Medium High
SRC007 https://www.sonatype.com/state-of-the-software-supply-chain/ Medium High
SRC008 https://arxiv.org/html/2409.07669v2 High High
SRC009 https://www.pixee.ai/blog/sast-false-positives-reduction Medium High
SRC010 https://embeddedbits.org/how-is-the-linux-kernel-tested-embe Medium High
SRC011 https://www.kernel.org/doc/html/v6.5/dev-tools/testing-overv High High
SRC012 https://arxiv.org/html/2605.07900v1 High High
SRC013 https://www.nist.gov/news-events/news/2026/04/nist-updates-n High High
SRC014 https://www.moderne.ai/blog/security-dependency-updates-unma Medium High
SRC015 https://contribute.cncf.io/resources/services/hosted-tools/ High Medium
SRC016 https://www.linuxfoundation.org/research/maintainer-perspect High High

Evidence Snapshot

Dimension Rating
Evidence quality Robust
Source agreement High

Revisit Triggers

  • [data_update] OSSRA 2027 report is published, providing the next year-over-year comparison and updated figures.
  • [study] An academic study or independent audit organization publishes vulnerability prevalence data from a non-M&A sample for comparison.
  • [data_update] NVD/CVE database growth rate normalizes (drops below 20% year-over-year), suggesting measurement expansion has stabilized.
  • [event] Linux kernel CNA's annual CVE output stabilizes, removing the one-time surge effect from per-codebase counts.

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