C002¶


Research	R0057 — RLHF Yes-Men Claims v3
Run	2026-04-01
Claim	C002

Claim: A 2026 mathematical framework demonstrated the complete causal chain: human labelers systematically prefer agreeable responses, which creates a reward tilt in the preference data, which RLHF then amplifies through optimization.

BLUF: Confirmed. Shapira, Benade and Procaccia (2026) present a formal mathematical analysis tracing exactly this causal chain with covariance-based proofs.

Probability: Very likely (80-95%) | Confidence: High

Summary¶

Entity	Description
Claim Definition	Claim text, scope, status
Assessment	Full analytical product with reasoning chain
ACH Matrix	Evidence x hypotheses diagnosticity analysis
Self-Audit	ROBIS-adapted 5-domain audit

Hypotheses¶

ID	Hypothesis	Status
H1	The claim accurately describes the causal chain presented in the paper	Supported
H2	The claim may overstate the completeness of the framework	Not supported
H3	The claim mischaracterizes the paper	Eliminated

Searches¶

ID	Target	Results	Selected
S01	Mathematical framework RLHF sycophancy causal chain reward tilt 2026	10	1

Sources¶

Source	Description	Reliability	Relevance
SRC01	Shapira et al. (2026) — How RLHF Amplifies Sycophancy	High	High

Revisit Triggers¶

If the Shapira et al. paper is refuted or its proofs shown to contain errors