E01¶


Research	R0052 — Methodology Claims
Run	2026-03-31
Claim	C009
Source	SRC02
Evidence	SRC02-E01
Type	Reported

Educational source confirms seven-point probability scale from ICD 203

URL: https://psu.pb.unizin.org/hls476/chapter/intelligence-community-directive-203/

Extract¶

ICD 203 provides a probability scale for expressing analytic uncertainty. The scale has seven points with dual terminology for each level, and numeric ranges from 01-05% to 95-99%.

Relevance to Hypotheses¶

Hypothesis	Relationship	Strength
H1	Supports	Confirms the claim
H2	Contradicts	No evidence for partial correctness
H3	Contradicts	Refutes material incorrectness

Context¶

Source is authoritative in its domain and directly addresses the claim.