R0052/2026-03-31/C009/S01

Research	R0052 — Methodology Claims
Run	2026-03-31
Claim	C009
Search	S01

WebSearch — ICD 203 probability scale details

Summary

Field	Value
Source/Database	WebSearch
Query terms	ICD 203 probability scale seven points "almost certain" 95-99 numeric ranges dual terminology
Filters	None
Results returned	10
Results selected	2
Results rejected	8

Selected Results

Result	Title	URL	Rationale
S01-R01	ICD203 GitHub reference	https://github.com/wesinator/ICD203-intel-analysis	Structured reference with exact scale values
S01-R02	ICD 203 Penn State	https://psu.pb.unizin.org/hls476/chapter/intelligence-community-directive-203/	Educational breakdown of ICD 203

Rejected Results

Result	Title	URL	Rationale
S01-R03	Probability vs confidence (T&F)	https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/02684527.2023.2276582	Discussion paper, not primary
S01-R04	ICD 203 (DocsLib)	https://docslib.org/doc/1758313/icd-203-analytic-standards	Mirror of ICD 203, redundant
S01-R05	ICD 203 (Scribd)	https://www.scribd.com/document/912866800/ICD-203-Analytic-Standards	Scribd paywall
S01-R06	Words of Estimative Probability (CIS)	https://www.cisecurity.org/ms-isac/services/words-of-estimative-probability-analytic-confidences-and-structured-analytic-techniques	CIS application, not primary
S01-R07	Numerically bounded probability (PMC)	https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7971511/	Academic analysis, not primary
S01-R08	Intelligence Scales (LinkedIn)	https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/intelligence-scales-analysis-rob-arnold	Personal analysis
S01-R09	ICD 203 PDF (FAS)	https://irp.fas.org/dni/icd/icd-203.pdf	PDF, could not parse
S01-R10	Intelligence Reform (Cipher Brief)	https://www.thecipherbrief.com/intelligence-reform-probability	Opinion piece on reform

Notes

All results dispositioned. Search returned relevant results for claim verification.