C009 — Claim Definition¶


Research	R0052 — Methodology Claims
Run	2026-03-31
Claim	C009

Claim as Received¶

ICD 203's probability scale defines seven points with dual terminology and explicit numeric ranges, capping at "Almost Certain" (95-99%) — never reaching 100%.

Claim as Clarified¶

ICD 203 includes a seven-point probability scale where each point has two equivalent terms (e.g., 'Almost no chance' / 'Remote'), explicit numeric ranges, and the highest point is 'Almost certain(ly)' / 'Nearly certain' at 95-99%, deliberately never reaching 100%.

BLUF¶

The claim is accurate. The ICD 203 probability scale has exactly seven points, each with dual terminology and explicit numeric ranges. The scale caps at 95-99% ('Almost certain(ly)' / 'Nearly certain'), never reaching 100%.

Scope¶

Domain: Intelligence Community analytical standards
Timeframe: 2015-present (ICD 203 revision)
Testability: Directly verifiable against ICD 203

Assessment Summary¶

Probability: Almost certain (95-99%)

Confidence: High

Hypothesis outcome: H1 supported — multiple sources confirm the seven-point scale with exact terms and ranges.

[Full assessment in assessment.md.]

Status¶

Field	Value
Date created	2026-03-31
Date completed	2026-03-31
Researcher profile	Phil Moore
Prompt version	ai-research-methodology v1 research.md
Revisit by	2027-03-31
Revisit trigger	ODNI revises the probability scale in a new edition of ICD 203