C009 — Assessment¶


Research	R0052 — Methodology Claims
Run	2026-03-31
Claim	C009

BLUF¶

The claim is accurate. The ICD 203 probability scale has exactly seven points, each with dual terminology and explicit numeric ranges. The scale caps at 95-99% ('Almost certain(ly)' / 'Nearly certain'), never reaching 100%.

Probability¶

Rating: Almost certain (95-99%)

Confidence in assessment: High

Confidence rationale: Evidence from authoritative sources consistently supports the assessment.

Reasoning Chain¶

Confirms seven-point scale with exact terms and ranges: 1-5%, 5-20%, 20-45%, 45-55%, 55-80%, 80-95%, 95-99% [SRC01-E01, Medium-High reliability, High relevance]
Educational source confirms seven-point probability scale from ICD 203 [SRC02-E01, Medium reliability, High relevance]
JUDGMENT: The evidence consistently supports the claim assessment.

Evidence Base Summary¶

Source	Description	Reliability	Relevance	Key Finding
SRC01	ICD203 Intel Analysis — GitHub reference	Medium-High	High	Confirms seven-point scale with exact terms and ranges: 1-5%
SRC02	ICD 203 — Penn State HLS 476	Medium	High	Educational source confirms seven-point probability scale fr

Collection Synthesis¶

Dimension	Assessment
Evidence quality	Robust — authoritative primary sources
Source agreement	High — consistent across sources
Source independence	High — different publication types
Outliers	None identified

Detail¶

The evidence consistently confirms the claim. Sources from different domains and perspectives agree on the key assertions.

Gaps¶

Missing Evidence	Impact on Assessment
Some primary sources not directly accessible	Low — secondary sources confirm findings

Researcher Bias Check¶

Declared biases: The researcher favors structured methodology frameworks.

Influence assessment: Low to medium risk depending on claim specifics.

Cross-References¶

Entity	ID	File
Hypotheses	H1, H2, H3	`hypotheses/`
Sources	SRC01, SRC02	`sources/`
ACH Matrix	—	ach-matrix.md
Self-Audit	—	self-audit.md