C009¶


Research	R0052 — Methodology Claims
Run	2026-03-31
Claim	C009

Claim: ICD 203's probability scale defines seven points with dual terminology and explicit numeric ranges, capping at "Almost Certain" (95-99%) — never reaching 100%.

BLUF: The claim is accurate. The ICD 203 probability scale has exactly seven points, each with dual terminology and explicit numeric ranges. The scale caps at 95-99% ('Almost certain(ly)' / 'Nearly certain'), never reaching 100%.

Probability: Almost certain (95-99%) | Confidence: High

Summary¶

Entity	Description
Claim Definition	Claim text, scope, status
Assessment	Full analytical product with reasoning chain
ACH Matrix	Evidence x hypotheses diagnosticity analysis
Self-Audit	ROBIS-adapted 5-domain audit

Hypotheses¶

ID	Hypothesis	Status
H1	The scale has seven points with dual terms, numeric ranges, capping at 95-99%	Supported
H2	The scale exists but some detail differs (different number of points, ranges, or terminology)	Eliminated
H3	The scale does not have these characteristics	Eliminated

Searches¶

ID	Target	Results	Selected
S01	ICD 203 probability scale details	10	2

Sources¶

Source	Description	Reliability	Relevance
SRC01	ICD203 Intel Analysis — GitHub reference	Medium-High	High
SRC02	ICD 203 — Penn State HLS 476	Medium	High

Revisit Triggers¶

ODNI revises the probability scale in a new edition of ICD 203