C004 — Claim Definition¶


Research	R0052 — Methodology Claims
Run	2026-03-31
Claim	C004

Claim as Received¶

The IPCC uses a two-axis confidence model: evidence quality (Limited/Medium/Robust) and source agreement (Low/Medium/High).

Claim as Clarified¶

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assesses confidence using two independent dimensions: (1) evidence quality rated as Limited, Medium, or Robust, and (2) degree of agreement rated as Low, Medium, or High. These two axes combine to produce five confidence levels.

BLUF¶

The claim is accurate. The IPCC Guidance Note on Uncertainty confirms the two-axis model with exactly the terms stated: evidence (Limited/Medium/Robust) and agreement (Low/Medium/High).

Scope¶

Domain: Climate science assessment methodology
Timeframe: 2010-present (AR5 guidance onward)
Testability: Directly verifiable against IPCC guidance documents

Assessment Summary¶

Probability: Almost certain (95-99%)

Confidence: High

Hypothesis outcome: H1 supported — IPCC guidance note confirms exact terms and structure.

[Full assessment in assessment.md.]

Status¶

Field	Value
Date created	2026-03-31
Date completed	2026-03-31
Researcher profile	Phil Moore
Prompt version	ai-research-methodology v1 research.md
Revisit by	2027-03-31
Revisit trigger	IPCC publishes revised uncertainty guidance with different terminology or structure