C004¶


Research	R0052 — Methodology Claims
Run	2026-03-31
Claim	C004

Claim: The IPCC uses a two-axis confidence model: evidence quality (Limited/Medium/Robust) and source agreement (Low/Medium/High).

BLUF: The claim is accurate. The IPCC Guidance Note on Uncertainty confirms the two-axis model with exactly the terms stated: evidence (Limited/Medium/Robust) and agreement (Low/Medium/High).

Probability: Almost certain (95-99%) | Confidence: High

Summary¶

Entity	Description
Claim Definition	Claim text, scope, status
Assessment	Full analytical product with reasoning chain
ACH Matrix	Evidence x hypotheses diagnosticity analysis
Self-Audit	ROBIS-adapted 5-domain audit

Hypotheses¶

ID	Hypothesis	Status
H1	The IPCC uses exactly the two-axis model described with the stated terms	Supported
H2	The IPCC uses a two-axis model but with different terms or additional dimensions	Eliminated
H3	The IPCC does not use a two-axis confidence model	Eliminated

Searches¶

ID	Target	Results	Selected
S01	IPCC confidence framework two axes	10	2

Sources¶

Source	Description	Reliability	Relevance
SRC01	IPCC Uncertainty Guidance Note	High	High
SRC02	Confidence levels in IPCC reports (Springer)	High	High

Revisit Triggers¶

IPCC publishes revised uncertainty guidance with different terminology or structure