C009 — ICD 203 Seven-Point Probability Scale¶
Research: R0052 Run: 2026-03-31 Mode: claim
BLUF¶
The claim is almost certainly correct. ICD 203's probability scale defines seven points with dual terminology and explicit numeric ranges, capping at "Almost Certain" (95-99%) and never reaching 100%. This is confirmed by the GitHub ICD 203 reference that reproduces the scale verbatim.
Probability / Answer¶
Rating: Almost certain (95-99%) Confidence: High Rationale: The probability scale is directly reproduced from ICD 203 by multiple sources, all showing seven points with dual terminology and the exact numeric ranges stated in the claim.
Reasoning Chain¶
- The GitHub ICD 203 repository reproduces the seven-point scale: Almost no chance/Remote (1-5%), Very unlikely/Highly improbable (5-20%), Unlikely/Improbable (20-45%), Roughly even chance/Roughly even odds (45-55%), Likely/Probable (55-80%), Very likely/Highly probable (80-95%), Almost certain/Nearly certain (95-99%). [Source: SRC01, Medium, High]
- Academic analyses of ICD 203 confirm seven verbal probability expressions with dual terminology. [Source: SRC02, High, High]
- The scale caps at 95-99% (Almost Certain), never reaching 100%, reflecting the intelligence community's principle that absolute certainty is unattainable. [Source: SRC01, Medium, High]
- JUDGMENT: Every element of the claim is confirmed — seven points, dual terminology, explicit numeric ranges, and the 95-99% cap.
Hypotheses¶
H1: The claim is substantially correct¶
Status: Supported Evidence for: Multiple sources reproduce the scale with exact matching details. Evidence against: None.
H2: The claim is substantially incorrect¶
Status: Eliminated Evidence for: None. Evidence against: All sources confirm.
H3: The scale exists but with different details than claimed¶
Status: Eliminated Evidence for: None. All specific details match. Evidence against: Seven points, dual terms, numeric ranges, and 95-99% cap all confirmed.
Evidence Summary¶
| Source | Description | Reliability | Relevance | Key Finding |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SRC01 | GitHub ICD 203 repository | Medium | High | Reproduces full seven-point scale with all details |
| SRC02 | PLOS ONE — Verbal probabilities study | High | High | Confirms seven verbal expressions in ICD 203 |
| SRC03 | DNI official website | High | Medium | References probability language in ICD 203 |
Collection Synthesis¶
| Dimension | Assessment |
|---|---|
| Evidence quality | Robust — multiple independent confirmations |
| Source agreement | High — all sources agree on all details |
| Source independence | Independent — government, academic, and community sources |
| Outliers | None |
Gaps¶
| Missing Evidence | Impact on Assessment |
|---|---|
| Direct ICD 203 PDF parsing | Minimal — scale reproduced identically across multiple sources |
Researcher Bias Check¶
Declared biases: The researcher's methodology incorporates this scale. Influence assessment: Low risk — factual description of a published scale.
Revisit Triggers¶
| Trigger | Type | Check |
|---|---|---|
| DNI revises ICD 203 probability scale | policy | Check DNI website for ICD 203 updates |
| ODNI introduces a new estimative language standard | policy | Monitor ODNI publications |