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R0052 — Methodology Claims

Mode: Claim · Status: Active · Tags: methodology, intelligence-community, scientific-method

Input

  1. ICD 203 defines nine tradecraft standards that govern how intelligence analysts produce assessments.
  2. No prior work in published, accessible literature has systematically combined intelligence community analytical standards with scientific methodology frameworks into a single unified research methodology.
  3. GRADE separates the quality of evidence from the strength of conclusions drawn from it — these are independent axes that must be scored separately.
  4. The IPCC uses a two-axis confidence model: evidence quality (Limited/Medium/Robust) and source agreement (Low/Medium/High).
  5. As early as 1987, Mulrow documented that none of the 50 reviews she examined met all eight basic scientific reporting criteria.
  6. CONSORT 2010 was a 25-item checklist; CONSORT 2025 expanded to 30 items.
  7. Chamberlin first published "The Method of Multiple Working Hypotheses" in 1890 (revised 1897). Platt published "Strong Inference" in 1964, explicitly citing Chamberlin's work.
  8. Platt deliberately numbered his final step "1'" (one-prime, not four) to signal that it's a loop, not a sequence.
  9. ICD 203's probability scale defines seven points with dual terminology and explicit numeric ranges, capping at "Almost Certain" (95-99%) — never reaching 100%.
  10. The NAS published 21 standards with 82 elements of performance organized across four stages of review.
  11. The Wardle and Derakhshan Information Disorder Taxonomy classifies information failure along two dimensions — falseness of content and intent to harm — producing three categories: misinformation, disinformation, and malinformation.
  12. Journalism is principles-based, not methodology-based — no journalistic framework has a hierarchical evidence quality scale, calibrated uncertainty language, structured bias assessment domains, or source reliability tiering.
  13. Different domains use different terms for the same phenomenon, and single-term searches create systematic blind spots when searching across disciplines.
  14. The process self-audit (ROBIS) catches process errors but not interpretation errors — an agent can follow every step correctly and still mischaracterize what a source says.

Runs

2026-03-31 — Initial run

Mode: Claim · Claims: 14 · Prompt: ai-research-methodology v1 research.md · Model: unknown

First research run for methodology claims verification.

2026-03-31-02 — Rerun 02

Mode: Claim · Claims: 14 · Prompt: ai-research-methodology v1 research.md · Model: unknown

Second research run for reproducibility comparison.

2026-03-31-03 — Rerun 03

Mode: Claim · Claims: 14 · Prompt: ai-research-methodology v1 research.md · Model: claude-opus-4-6

Third research run. 10 claims almost certain, 4 very likely. 344 files produced.