R0049/2026-03-31/Q002-SRC01 — Scorecard¶
Source¶
| Title | Probability and confidence: How to improve communication of uncertainty about uncertainty in intelligence analysis |
| Publisher | Journal of Behavioral Decision Making |
| Authors | Duke et al. |
| Date | 2024 |
| URL | https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/bdm.2364 |
| Type | Peer-reviewed journal article |
Ratings¶
| Dimension | Rating |
|---|---|
| Reliability | High |
| Relevance | Medium-High |
| Missing data | Low risk |
| Measurement | Low risk |
| Selective reporting | Low risk |
| Randomization | Low risk |
| Protocol deviation | Low risk |
| COI/funding | Low risk |
Rationale¶
| Dimension | Rationale |
|---|---|
| Reliability | Peer-reviewed in established behavioral science journal; multi-experiment design (N=275, N=796) |
| Relevance | Studies IC probability communication directly but does not propose integration with scientific frameworks |
| Measurement | Clear experimental design with numerical interpretation measures |
| Randomization | Experimental design with participant randomization |
Evidence Extracts¶
| Evidence | Summary |
|---|---|
| SRC01-E01 | IC probability/confidence communication studied empirically; participants could not correctly interpret confidence; numerical ranges improved probability interpretation but not confidence interpretation |