Q002-S03 — Search Log¶


Research	R0049 — Landscape Scan
Run	2026-03-31
Query	Q002
Search	S03

Summary¶


Source/Database	Web (Google via WebSearch)
Query terms	"'IPCC' 'intelligence community' OR 'ICD 203' probability language comparison calibrated uncertainty terminology cross-domain"
Filters	None
Results returned	10
Results selected	3
Results rejected	7

Selected Results¶

Result	Title	URL	Rationale
S03-R01	Probability and confidence: How to improve communication of uncertainty (Duke 2024)	https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/bdm.2364	Studies IC probability/confidence communication — most directly cross-domain relevant
S03-R02	Confidence levels and likelihood terms in IPCC reports (Springer 2022)	https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-022-03382-3	Cross-discipline survey of IPCC uncertainty language interpretation
S03-R03	Verbal probabilities: Very likely to be somewhat more confusing than numbers (PLOS ONE)	https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0213522	Directly tests IC probability formats including ICD 203 numerical guidelines

Rejected Results¶

Result	Title	URL	Rationale
—	Interpreting Probabilistic Language in IPCC Reports (Ergo)	https://journals.publishing.umich.edu/ergo/article/id/4637/	Philosophy paper on IPCC language, no IC connection
—	Confident, likely, or both? (Springer)	https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-020-02746-x	IPCC-internal uncertainty framework analysis
—	IPCC Guidance Note on Uncertainty	https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/05/uncertainty-guidance-note.pdf	IPCC primary source, no IC integration
—	IPCC AR5 guidance on uncertainties (Springer)	https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0178-6	IPCC working group coordination, no IC connection
—	Lost in translation: confidence and certainty (TheConversation)	https://theconversation.com/lost-in-translation-confidence-and-certainty-in-climate-science-17181	Popular article on IPCC communication
—	Probability or confidence, a distinction without a difference?	https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/02684527.2023.2276582	IC-focused, no scientific framework integration
—	CIS Words of Estimative Probability	https://www.cisecurity.org/	IC reference resource, no cross-domain content

Notes¶

This search was the most productive for Q002, yielding three sources that study calibrated probability language across domains. However, all three study the problem of uncertainty communication rather than proposing a unified methodology. The parallel between ICD 203's seven-point probability scale and IPCC's likelihood/confidence framework is well-documented but unexploited for integration purposes.