SRC05-E01 — 66 SATs Without Scientific Framework Integration¶
Description¶
Heuer and Pherson's 66 structured analytic techniques represent the IC's own methodology tradition, developed independently of scientific evidence synthesis frameworks.
URL¶
https://us.sagepub.com/en-us/nam/structured-analytic-techniques-for-intelligence-analysis/book255432
Extract¶
66 structured analytic techniques across three categories: diagnostic (make assumptions transparent), contrarian (challenge current thinking), and imaginative (encourage new perspectives). Techniques include ACH, Key Assumptions Check, Devil's Advocacy, Red Team Analysis, Starbursting, and others. The 3rd edition added 9 new techniques. Each technique documented with: when to use, value added, method, potential pitfalls, examples, relationships, and origins.
Relevance to Hypotheses¶
| Hypothesis | Relevance | Strength |
|---|---|---|
| H1 — Unified frameworks exist | Contradicts (IC tradition self-contained) | Moderate |
| H2 — Domains remain siloed | Supports (no GRADE/PRISMA/Cochrane reference) | Strong |
| H3 — Partial bridges exist | Supports (some techniques parallel scientific methods) | Moderate |
Context¶
FACT: The SATs tradition draws from psychology and cognitive science, not clinical evidence synthesis. JUDGMENT: The IC developed its own comprehensive methodology independently. Parallel concepts exist (e.g., ACH parallels systematic review; source reliability parallels risk of bias) but the connection is implicit, not systematic.