R0045/2026-03-29/Q001/SRC03/E02¶
IDC/OSDL projected Linux server market to exceed $11 billion by 2008
URL: https://lwn.net/Articles/115700/
Extract¶
A December 2004 IDC study commissioned by OSDL projected: Linux server market to exceed $11 billion across 3.3 million units by 2008 (24.5% CAGR), with an installed base surpassing 9.7 million servers. The overall Linux market (including PCs and software) was projected at $35.7 billion by 2008 (25.9% CAGR). Packaged applications running on Linux were expected to exceed $14 billion (44.3% CAGR). Stuart Cohen (OSDL CEO) stated "Linux is forecast to be the fastest growing server operating system environment." Vernon Turner (IDC) called Linux "clearly a mainstream solution."
Relevance to Hypotheses¶
| Hypothesis | Relationship | Strength |
|---|---|---|
| H1 | Supports | Analysts recognized Linux's trajectory by 2004 with specific revenue forecasts, consistent with H1's "cautiously optimistic" characterization |
| H2 | Contradicts | IDC calling Linux "clearly mainstream" and projecting $11B server market contradicts H2's claim that analysts were skeptical |
| H3 | Supports | The projections show analysts recognized the inevitability of Linux's rise |
Context¶
This study was jointly produced by IDC and OSDL. OSDL's involvement means the study framing may have been somewhat optimistic. However, IDC's methodology for market sizing is industry-standard and the data reflects actual shipment and revenue tracking.