R0045/2026-03-29/Q001 — ACH Matrix¶
Matrix¶
| H1: Sun dominated, Linux grew, ~2010 crossover | H2: Slower transition | H3: Faster transition | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SRC01-E01: Sun 68.5% Unix/RISC Q4 2001 | ++ | ++ | -- |
| SRC01-E02: Sun 54% worldwide Q1 2002 | ++ | + | - |
| SRC03-E01: Linux $1B revenue Q3 2004, 42.6% growth | ++ | -- | + |
| SRC03-E02: IDC forecast $11B Linux servers by 2008 | + | -- | + |
| SRC04-E01: Linux 50% of blades by 2004, 53% growth 2003 | + | -- | ++ |
Legend:
- ++ Strongly supports
- + Supports
- -- Strongly contradicts
- - Contradicts
- N/A Not applicable to this hypothesis
Diagnosticity Analysis¶
Most Diagnostic Evidence¶
| Evidence ID | Why Diagnostic |
|---|---|
| SRC03-E01 | Linux at $1B vs Unix at $4B in Q3 2004 directly discriminates between H1 (gradual crossover ~2010) and H3 (crossover before 2005) — the 4:1 ratio eliminates H3's pre-2005 crossover claim |
| SRC04-E01 | 50% blade server share by 2004 discriminates between H1 and H2 — shows transition was fast in specific segments, eliminating H2 |
Least Diagnostic Evidence¶
| Evidence ID | Why Non-Diagnostic |
|---|---|
| SRC01-E02 | Sun's 54% worldwide share in Q1 2002 is consistent with all three hypotheses — all agree Sun was dominant at the starting point |
Outcome¶
Hypothesis supported: H1 — Sun dominated Unix/RISC in 2001; Linux was small but growing at 40-50% annually; the revenue crossover occurred around 2010-2012.
Hypotheses eliminated: H2 — The evidence of 42-53% annual Linux growth rates and 50% blade server share by 2004 eliminates the "slow transition" hypothesis.
Hypotheses inconclusive: H3 — Partially supported for specific segments (blades) but eliminated for overall revenue crossover timing.