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H2 — RLHF-Sycophancy Link Is Not Recognized or Not Addressed

Statement

The AI research community either has not identified RLHF as a primary cause of sycophancy, or has identified it but is not taking meaningful action to address the problem.

Status

Eliminated. The link is well-established in peer-reviewed literature, has been publicly demonstrated in high-profile incidents, and multiple research efforts are actively addressing it.

Supporting Evidence

Evidence Summary
SRC02-E02 OpenAI's fix was prompt engineering, not structural change (weak support for "not meaningfully addressed")

Contradicting Evidence

Evidence Summary
SRC01-E01 Peer-reviewed research establishes the causal link
SRC02-E01 OpenAI publicly acknowledged the problem
SRC03-E01 Independent experts recognize the problem
SRC04-E01 Active research on targeted fixes
SRC05-E01 Mechanistic research ongoing
SRC06-E01 Anthropic researching broader reward hacking
SRC07-E01 OpenAI VP categorizes sycophancy as reward hacking
SRC08-E01 Comprehensive survey of RLHF problems

Reasoning

H2 is eliminated on both counts. The causal link is established in peer-reviewed research (ICLR 2024) and meaningful action is being taken at multiple levels.

Relationship to Other Hypotheses

H2 is the negative hypothesis. Its elimination supports H1 as the primary explanation. H3 adds nuance.