R0024/2026-03-25/Q004 — ACH Matrix¶
Matrix¶
| H1: Metrics and commitments exist | H2: No meaningful metrics | H3: Limited and inconsistent | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SRC01-E01: Anthropic 70-85% reduction, Petri tool | ++ | -- | + |
| SRC02-E01: OpenAI post-mortem, opaque methodology | + | - | ++ |
| SRC03-E01: Newer models paradoxically worse; industry complacency | - | + | ++ |
| SRC04-E01: 42 AGs demanding commitments | - | N/A | ++ |
Legend:
- ++ Strongly supports
- + Supports
- -- Strongly contradicts
- - Contradicts
- N/A Not applicable to this hypothesis
Diagnosticity Analysis¶
Most Diagnostic Evidence¶
| Evidence ID | Why Diagnostic |
|---|---|
| SRC04-E01 | The 42-state AG letter is most diagnostic because it discriminates sharply between H1 (strong commitments exist) and H3 (commitments are insufficient). If satisfactory commitments existed, 42 AGs would not have demanded them. |
| SRC03-E01 | The finding that newer models are more sycophantic contradicts H1 (commitments are working) and supports H3 (efforts are inconsistent). |
Least Diagnostic Evidence¶
| Evidence ID | Why Non-Diagnostic |
|---|---|
| SRC01-E01 | Anthropic's metrics support both H1 (metrics exist) and H3 (limited to one company). Does not discriminate clearly between hypotheses. |
Outcome¶
Hypothesis supported: H3 — Some metrics exist but commitments are limited, inconsistent across companies, and lack standardization, binding mechanisms, and independent verification.
Hypotheses eliminated: H2 — Anthropic's published metrics clearly demonstrate that some data exists.
Hypotheses inconclusive: H1 — Partially supported (Anthropic's metrics are real) but overstates the breadth and binding nature of industry commitments.