R0007/2026-03-20/C014 — Assessment

Research	R0007 — AI Cognitive Amplifier
Run	2026-03-20
Claim	C014

BLUF

Confirmed. Otis, Clarke, Delecourt, Holtz, and Koning studied 640 Kenyan entrepreneurs in a five-month RCT. High performers gained 15% in profits/revenue; low performers declined by 8%. Published as HBS Working Paper 24-042.

Probability

Rating: Almost certain (95-99%) Confidence in assessment: High Confidence rationale: Based on web-accessible evidence.

Reasoning Chain

1. 640 Kenyan entrepreneurs in a 5-month RCT received GPT-4 business advice via WhatsApp. High performers gained 15% in profits/revenue. Low performers declined by 8%. The divergence stemmed from task selection: high performers asked for help on straightforward tasks; low performers sought help on complex problems beyond AI's capabilities. [SRC01-E01, High reliability, High relevance]

Evidence Base Summary

Source	Description	Reliability	Relevance	Key Finding
SRC01	The Uneven Impact of Generative AI on Entrepreneurial Performance	High	High	See BLUF
## Collection Synthesis
Dimension	Assessment
-----------	------------
Evidence quality	Medium to Robust
Source agreement	High
Source independence	Assessed per claim
Outliers	None
### Detail
640 Kenyan entrepreneurs in a 5-month RCT received GPT-4 business advice via WhatsApp. High performers gained 15% in profits/revenue. Low performers declined by 8%. The divergence stemmed from task selection: high performers asked for help on straightforward tasks; low performers sought help on complex problems beyond AI's capabilities.
## Gaps
Missing Evidence	Impact on Assessment
-----------------	---------------------
Full-text access	Low to Moderate
## Researcher Bias Check
Declared biases: None.
Influence assessment: Standard verification.
## Cross-References
Entity	ID	File
--------	----	------
Hypotheses	H1, H2, H3	hypotheses/
Sources	SRC01	sources/
ACH Matrix	—	ach-matrix.md
Self-Audit	—	self-audit.md