R0007/2026-03-20/C004¶
Claim: In software engineering, every major study from Sackman (1968) through Oliveira (2023) confirms large individual variation. The most careful recent work suggests log-normal distributions with roughly a 2.4x ratio between top and bottom halves.
BLUF: The overall pattern of large individual variation from Sackman (1968) onward is well-confirmed. The "most careful recent work" finding log-normal distributions with a ~2.4x ratio is confirmed but is by Jorgensen (2023), not "Oliveira (2023)." The author attribution appears to be incorrect.
Probability: Likely (55-80%) | Confidence: Medium
Correction needed: The 2023 paper finding log-normal distributions with a 2.44x ratio is by Magne Jorgensen, not "Oliveira." Published in Information and Software Technology, Volume 159 (2023).
Summary¶
| Entity | Description |
|---|---|
| Claim Definition | Claim text, scope, status |
| Assessment | Full analytical product with reasoning chain |
| ACH Matrix | Evidence x hypotheses diagnosticity analysis |
| Self-Audit | ROBIS-adapted 4-domain process audit |
Hypotheses¶
| ID | Hypothesis | Status |
|---|---|---|
| H1 | Claim is accurate as stated | Eliminated |
| H2 | Partially correct — findings confirmed but author attribution wrong | Supported |
| H3 | Claim is materially wrong | Eliminated |
Searches¶
| ID | Target | Results | Selected |
|---|---|---|---|
| S01 | Sackman 1968 programmer variation | 10 | 3 |
| S02 | Oliveira/Jorgensen 2023 log-normal | 10 | 2 |
Sources¶
| Source | Description | Reliability | Relevance |
|---|---|---|---|
| SRC01 | Sackman et al. (1968) | High | High |
| SRC02 | Jorgensen (2023) | High | High |
| SRC03 | Construx review of variation studies | Medium | High |