R0007/2026-03-20/C003 — Claim Definition¶
Claim as Received¶
Their 2014 follow-up found that 82.5% of 229 samples had significantly heavy right tails.
Claim as Clarified¶
This claim asserts that a follow-up paper to O'Boyle & Aguinis (2012), published in 2014, analyzed 229 samples and found 82.5% had significantly heavy right tails. The claim has three testable sub-claims: (1) the year 2014, (2) 229 samples with 82.5% heavy right tails, and (3) that this was a follow-up to the 2012 paper.
BLUF¶
The 229-sample study is real but was published in 2016 (not 2014) by four authors (not two). The year attribution is incorrect.
Scope¶
- Domain: Organizational psychology, performance distributions
- Timeframe: 2014-2016 publications
- Testability: Verifiable against published papers
Assessment Summary¶
Probability: Likely (55-80%)
Confidence: Medium
Hypothesis outcome: H2 prevails — the findings exist but the year and authorship are incorrect.
[Full assessment in assessment.md.]
Status¶
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Date created | 2026-03-20 |
| Date completed | 2026-03-20 |
| Researcher profile | Not provided |
| Prompt version | claim v1.0-draft |
| Revisit by | 2027-03-20 |
| Revisit trigger | Full-text verification of the 82.5% figure |