R0007/2026-03-20/C003¶
Claim: Their 2014 follow-up found that 82.5% of 229 samples had significantly heavy right tails.
BLUF: The 229 samples and heavy-tails finding come from Aguinis, O'Boyle, Gonzalez-Mule, and Joo, but this was published in 2016 (not 2014) as "Cumulative Advantage: Conductors and Insulators of Heavy-Tailed Productivity Distributions and Productivity Stars" in Personnel Psychology 69(1): 3-66. The 2014 paper was "Star Performers in Twenty-First Century Organizations." The claim conflates two different follow-up papers. The 82.5% figure could not be independently verified through web-accessible sources but the 229 samples figure is confirmed.
Probability: Likely (55-80%) | Confidence: Medium
Correction needed: The year should be 2016, not 2014. The paper is by Aguinis, O'Boyle, Gonzalez-Mule, and Joo (not just O'Boyle and Aguinis). The 82.5% figure needs full-text verification.
Summary¶
| Entity | Description |
|---|---|
| Claim Definition | Claim text, scope, status |
| Assessment | Full analytical product with reasoning chain |
| ACH Matrix | Evidence x hypotheses diagnosticity analysis |
| Self-Audit | ROBIS-adapted 4-domain process audit |
Hypotheses¶
| ID | Hypothesis | Status |
|---|---|---|
| H1 | Claim is accurate as stated | Eliminated |
| H2 | Claim is partially correct — findings exist but year and authorship are wrong | Supported |
| H3 | Claim is materially wrong | Eliminated |
Searches¶
| ID | Target | Results | Selected |
|---|---|---|---|
| S01 | Aguinis O'Boyle follow-up heavy tails 229 samples | 10 | 3 |
Sources¶
| Source | Description | Reliability | Relevance |
|---|---|---|---|
| SRC01 | Aguinis et al. (2016) Cumulative Advantage | High | High |