C004¶


Research	R0007 — AI Made Everyone Faster
Run	2026-03-19
Claim	C004

Claim: In software engineering, every major study from Sackman (1968) through Oliveira (2023) confirms large individual variation. The most careful recent work suggests log-normal distributions with roughly a 2.4x ratio between top and bottom halves.

BLUF: The existence of large individual variation from Sackman (1968) onward is well-confirmed. The 2023 study (likely Duarte de Oliveira et al. in Information and Software Technology) reports a coefficient of variance of 0.55 and a 2.44x ratio between top and bottom halves. The claim that distributions are log-normal is broadly supported but the original paper tested multiple distribution types. The claim's characterization is substantially correct.

Probability: Very likely (80-95%) | Confidence: Medium-High

Summary¶

Entity	Description
Claim Definition	Claim text, scope, status
Assessment	Full analytical product with reasoning chain
ACH Matrix	Evidence x hypotheses diagnosticity analysis
Self-Audit	ROBIS-adapted 4-domain process audit

Hypotheses¶

ID	Hypothesis	Status
H1	Claim is accurate as stated	Supported
H2	Core pattern confirmed but specific distribution details have nuance	Inconclusive
H3	Large individual variation claim is wrong	Eliminated

Searches¶

ID	Target	Results	Selected
S01	Sackman 1968 through Oliveira 2023 programmer variation	10	3

Sources¶

Source	Description	Reliability	Relevance
SRC01	Multiple studies confirming individual variation in software engineering	High	High