R0007/2026-03-19/C003¶
Claim: Their 2014 follow-up found that 82.5% of 229 samples had significantly heavy right tails.
BLUF: The 82.53% of 229 samples statistic is confirmed, but it appears in the 2016 paper "Cumulative Advantage: Conductors and Insulators of Heavy-Tailed Productivity Distributions" (Aguinis et al., Personnel Psychology 2016), not a 2014 follow-up. The 2014 paper ("Star Performers in Twenty-First Century Organizations") is a conceptual/review paper, not the source of this statistic.
Probability: Likely (55-80%) | Confidence: Medium
Correction needed: The statistic is real but attributed to the wrong year/paper. It comes from Aguinis et al. (2016), not a 2014 follow-up.
Summary¶
| Entity | Description |
|---|---|
| Claim Definition | Claim text, scope, status |
| Assessment | Full analytical product with reasoning chain |
| ACH Matrix | Evidence x hypotheses diagnosticity analysis |
| Self-Audit | ROBIS-adapted 4-domain process audit |
Hypotheses¶
| ID | Hypothesis | Status |
|---|---|---|
| H1 | Claim is accurate as stated (2014, 82.5%, 229 samples) | Eliminated |
| H2 | Statistic is real but from a different year/paper (2016) | Supported |
| H3 | Statistic is fabricated or materially wrong | Eliminated |
Searches¶
| ID | Target | Results | Selected |
|---|---|---|---|
| S01 | Aguinis 2014 heavy tails 229 samples | 10 | 3 |
Sources¶
| Source | Description | Reliability | Relevance |
|---|---|---|---|
| SRC01 | Aguinis et al. (2016) Personnel Psychology | High | High |