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R0007/2026-03-19/C001 — Claim Definition
Research R0007 — AI Made Everyone Faster
Run 2026-03-19
Claim C001

Claim as Received

O'Boyle and Aguinis (2012) studied five studies, 198 samples, 633,263 individuals across researchers, entertainers, politicians, and athletes and found individual performance follows a power-law distribution, not a normal distribution. The top decile produces roughly 30% of total output; the top quartile produces over 50%.

Claim as Clarified

This is a compound claim with two parts:

  1. Study parameters: O'Boyle and Aguinis (2012) conducted five studies encompassing 198 samples and 633,263 individuals across researchers, entertainers, politicians, and athletes, finding that individual performance follows a Paretian (power-law) distribution rather than a normal (Gaussian) distribution.

  2. Output concentration: Under this distribution, the top decile (top 10%) produces approximately 30% of total output, and the top quartile (top 25%) produces more than 50% of total output.

Implicit assumption: The output concentration figures are reported findings from the paper rather than derived calculations.

BLUF

The study parameters and power-law finding are confirmed with high confidence. The specific output concentration percentages could not be independently verified and may represent approximate derivations rather than directly reported findings.

Scope

  • Domain: Organizational behavior / industrial-organizational psychology
  • Timeframe: 2012 publication; studies span multiple time periods
  • Testability: Study parameters verifiable via published paper; output concentration figures require access to full paper text

Assessment Summary

Probability: Likely (55-80%)

Confidence: Medium

Hypothesis outcome: H2 (partially correct) is best supported. The core study parameters are verified, but the specific output concentration percentages cannot be confirmed from available secondary sources.

[Full assessment in assessment.md.]

Status

Field Value
Date created 2026-03-19
Date completed 2026-03-19
Researcher profile Not provided
Prompt version Unified Research Standard 1.0-draft
Revisit by 2027-03-19
Revisit trigger Access to full paper text to verify output concentration figures