E02¶


Research	R0002 — Research Standards for AI-Assisted Writing
Run	2026-03-13
Claim	C003
Source	SRC02
Evidence	SRC02-E02
Type	Factual

Full Likelihood Table with All Terms and Ranges

URL: Not captured — experimental run

Extract¶

Complete IPCC likelihood table:

Seven primary terms:

Term	Probability
Virtually certain	99-100%
Very likely	90-100%
Likely	66-100%
About as likely as not	33-66%
Unlikely	0-33%
Very unlikely	0-10%
Exceptionally unlikely	0-1%

Additional terms used when appropriate:

Term	Probability
Extremely likely	95-100%
More likely than not	>50-100%
Extremely unlikely	0-5%

Relevance to Hypotheses¶

Hypothesis	Relationship	Strength
H1	Supports	Weak — nine terms exist if "More likely than not" excluded
H2	Supports	Moderate — full table shows the counting complexity
H3	Contradicts	Strong — a comprehensive likelihood vocabulary exists

Context¶

This is the most complete enumeration of IPCC likelihood terms found. The primary terms are symmetrically structured (three above, one middle, three below). The supplementary terms add asymmetric granularity. The probability ranges overlap, reflecting the calibrated language approach rather than mutually exclusive bins.

Notes¶

The overlapping probability ranges (e.g., "Very likely" at 90-100% and "Extremely likely" at 95-100%) are intentional — the IPCC uses these as calibrated language, not as a binning system.