E05¶


Research	R0002 — Research Standards for AI-Assisted Writing
Run	2026-03-13
Claim	C003
Source	SRC01
Evidence	SRC01-E05
Type	Factual

Separate Likelihood Scale with Seven Primary Terms

URL: Not captured — experimental run

Extract¶

The IPCC defines a separate likelihood scale distinct from the confidence framework. The standard presentation includes seven primary terms:

Term	Probability
Virtually certain	99-100%
Very likely	90-100%
Likely	66-100%
About as likely as not	33-66%
Unlikely	0-33%
Very unlikely	0-10%
Exceptionally unlikely	0-1%

Relevance to Hypotheses¶

Hypothesis	Relationship	Strength
H1	Supports	Moderate — confirms a separate likelihood scale exists, but seven primary terms, not nine
H2	Supports	Strong — confirms the scale exists but with different count
H3	Contradicts	Strong — a separate likelihood scale does exist

Context¶

The claim states "nine-point likelihood scale." The primary presentation shows seven terms. Including supplementary terms expands the count (see SRC02-E01 and E02 for the full enumeration). The IPCC guidance does not describe the scale as having a fixed point count.

Notes¶

The likelihood scale is explicitly separate from the confidence scale — they serve different purposes and are applied to different types of statements.