R0002/2026-03-13/C003/H1¶
Statement¶
All sub-claims are accurate, including the nine-point likelihood scale.
Status¶
Current: Inconclusive
Supporting Evidence¶
| Evidence | Summary |
|---|---|
| SRC01-E01 | Confirms two-axis confidence model |
| SRC01-E02 | Confirms evidence axis: Limited, Medium, Robust |
| SRC01-E03 | Confirms agreement axis: Low, Medium, High |
| SRC01-E04 | Confirms five confidence levels |
| SRC02-E02 | Nine terms exist if "More likely than not" is excluded from the ten-term total |
Contradicting Evidence¶
| Evidence | Summary |
|---|---|
| SRC02-E01 | Standard IPCC presentation has seven primary terms plus supplementary terms, not a fixed nine-point scale |
Reasoning¶
H1 is partially supported. Sub-claims 003a through 003d are all confirmed. The nine-point count (003e) is defensible if one counts seven primary terms plus "Extremely likely" and "Extremely unlikely" (excluding "More likely than not"), yielding nine. However, this is not the standard presentation. The IPCC guidance presents seven primary terms with three supplementary terms (totaling ten), or just seven primary terms. "Nine" does not precisely match any standard count. H1 is marked inconclusive because the overall framework is correct but the specific count is debatable.
Relationship to Other Hypotheses¶
H1 requires accuracy of the nine-point count. H2 accepts the framework but questions the count. The evidence favors H2 for sub-claim 003e. H3 (material misrepresentation) is eliminated.