C003 — Claim Definition¶


Research	R0002 — Research Standards for AI-Assisted Writing
Run	2026-03-13
Claim	C003

Claim as Received¶

IPCC two-axis confidence model: Evidence quality (Limited, Medium, Robust) x Source agreement (Low, Medium, High), five confidence levels. Separate nine-point likelihood scale.

Claim as Clarified¶

The IPCC uses a two-dimensional confidence framework based on assessments of evidence and degree of agreement. The evidence axis uses Limited, Medium, and Robust. The agreement axis uses Low, Medium, and High. Five confidence levels result. A separate likelihood scale exists, but the exact term count depends on whether supplementary terms are included.

BLUF¶

The two-axis confidence model and five confidence levels are confirmed. However, the claim contains terminology imprecisions: "Source agreement" should be "degree of agreement," "Evidence quality" should be "evidence" (encompassing type, amount, quality, and consistency). The "nine-point" likelihood scale count is debatable — the IPCC presents seven primary terms with supplementary terms, totaling up to ten depending on counting method.

Scope¶

Domain: Climate science / uncertainty communication
Timeframe: AR5 Uncertainty Guidance Note (2010) through AR6 (2021-2022) — current
Testability: Directly verifiable against IPCC guidance documents

Assessment Summary¶

Probability: Likely (55-80%)

Confidence: High

Hypothesis outcome: H2 (two-axis model and five confidence levels correct, but likelihood scale count differs) is the strongest hypothesis. Sub-claims 003a-003d are confirmed. Sub-claim 003e is debatable — "nine" is defensible under one counting method but does not match the standard presentation.

[Full assessment in assessment.md.]

Status¶

Field	Value
Date created	2026-03-13
Date completed	2026-03-13
Researcher profile	default
Prompt version	hybrid-prompt-test / full-prompt-run-07
Revisit by	2027-03-13
Revisit trigger	Future IPCC assessment report methodology changes