R0002/2026-03-13/C003
Claim: IPCC two-axis confidence model: Evidence quality (Limited, Medium, Robust) x Source agreement (Low, Medium, High), five confidence levels. Separate nine-point likelihood scale.
BLUF: The two-axis confidence model and five confidence levels are confirmed.
However, the claim contains terminology imprecisions: "Source agreement" should
be "degree of agreement," "Evidence quality" should be "evidence." The
"nine-point" likelihood scale count is debatable -- the IPCC presents seven
primary terms with supplementary terms, totaling up to ten depending on counting
method.
Probability: Likely (55-80%) | Confidence: High
Summary
| Entity |
Description |
| Claim Definition |
Claim text, scope, decomposition, status |
| Assessment |
Full analytical product with reasoning chain |
| ACH Matrix |
Evidence × hypotheses diagnosticity analysis |
| Self-Audit |
ROBIS-adapted 4-domain process audit |
Hypotheses
| ID |
Hypothesis |
Status |
| H1 |
All sub-claims are accurate |
Inconclusive |
| H2 |
Framework correct but likelihood scale count differs |
Supported |
| H3 |
Material misrepresentation of the IPCC framework |
Eliminated |
Searches
| ID |
Target |
Results |
Selected |
| S01 |
IPCC Confidence Framework |
10 |
3 |
| S02 |
IPCC Confidence Levels |
10 |
2 |
| S03 |
IPCC Likelihood Scale |
10 |
2 |
| S04 |
Greenfacts IPCC Likelihood Page |
1 |
1 |
| S05 |
IPCC AR5 Guidance Note PDF |
0 |
0 |
Sources
| ID |
Source |
Reliability |
Relevance |
| SRC01 |
IPCC AR5 Uncertainty Guidance Note |
High |
High |
| SRC02 |
Greenfacts IPCC Summary |
Medium-High |
High |