E02¶


Research	R0002 — Research Standards for AI-Assisted Writing
Run	2026-03-13
Claim	C001
Source	SRC01
Evidence	SRC01-E02
Type	Factual

Seven-Point Probability Scale Confirmed

URL: Not captured — experimental run

Extract¶

ICD 203 includes a seven-point probability scale with the following terms and ranges:

ICD 203 Term	Probability Range
Almost no chance	01-05%
Very unlikely	05-20%
Unlikely	20-45%
Roughly even chance	45-55%
Likely	55-80%
Very likely	80-95%
Almost certain(ly)	95-99%

Relevance to Hypotheses¶

Hypothesis	Relationship	Strength
H1	Supports	Moderate — seven-point scale confirmed, but lowest term differs
H2	Supports	Strong — confirms scale structure while revealing "Remote" discrepancy
H3	Contradicts	Strong — seven-point scale is structurally correct

Context¶

The seven-point scale structure and percentage ranges are confirmed. The claim states "Remote (01-05%)" but the official ICD 203 term is "Almost no chance (01-05%)." The percentage range is correct; only the term name is wrong. The top of the scale — "Almost certain (95-99%)" — matches exactly.

Notes¶

The term "Remote" appears in some IC probability scales but is not the standard ICD 203 term. The source of the conflation may be DIA or other agency-specific adaptations.