R0002/2026-03-13/C001/H1¶
Statement¶
The claim is accurate in all details — nine standards with the named shorthand labels, and a seven-point scale with the stated terms and ranges.
Status¶
Current: Inconclusive
Supporting Evidence¶
| Evidence | Summary |
|---|---|
| SRC01-E01 | Confirms nine Analytic Tradecraft Standards |
| SRC01-E02 | Confirms seven-point probability scale |
| SRC02-E01 | Multiple concordant sources confirm nine standards and seven-point scale |
Contradicting Evidence¶
| Evidence | Summary |
|---|---|
| SRC01-E03 | Official text says "effective visual information," not "Visual integrity" |
| SRC02-E02 | ICD 203 uses "Almost no chance," not "Remote," for the lowest probability band |
Reasoning¶
H1 is partially supported — the structural elements (nine standards, seven-point scale, percentage ranges) are all confirmed. However, two specific labels are inaccurate: "Visual integrity" departs from the official "effective visual information," and "Remote" is not the ICD 203 term for the lowest band. Because H1 requires accuracy in ALL details, these two discrepancies prevent full confirmation. H1 is marked inconclusive because the overall structure is correct even though specific labels are not.
Relationship to Other Hypotheses¶
H1 requires full accuracy; H2 requires correct structure with label discrepancies. The evidence supports H2 over H1. H3 (material misrepresentation) is eliminated because the structure is fundamentally correct.